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Weekly Forecast of the Natural Gas

Natural Gas futures concluded the week substantially higher, with the majority of the gains coming on Tuesday due to a weather-related price surge. The market subsequently went sideways for the rest of the week, although it managed to keep most of its weekly gains. July Natural Gas futures closed at $3.097 last week, up to $0.111 or 3.72 percent.

The week began with multiple weather models predicting the emergence of a severe heatwave; however, when heat forecasts dropped and cash prices decreased, gains were restricted, and prices retreated. Another dismal government storage data late in the week added to the downward pressure on prices.Despite a succession of potentially bearish occurrences, prices did not fall far enough to conjure up ideas of a bear market in late spring or early summer. Persistent pipeline troubles and a modest move back toward warmer temperatures contributed to the positive narrative signaling higher pricing in the near term.

Weekly Forecast of the Natural GasIf there are no dramatic changes over the weekend, traders’ attention will be drawn to pipeline difficulties and the prospect of a return of heat in the forecast this week. According to NatGasWeather, a noon jump in the trading session on Friday may have been spurred by reports that the Texas Eastern Pipeline (Tetco) force majeure could last a little longer.

Following an amended corrective action order from the Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration, the critical piece of Natural Gas infrastructure reintroduced a 20% pressure decrease. It slowed southwest flows out of Pennsylvania, according to the weather service (PHMSA).

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